A traffic forecast becomes more useful when it shows what happens at several conversion rates. The Seller Forecast Calculator compares low, base and high entered scenarios against the same average order value, variable costs, advertising budget and fixed expenses.
Keep the traffic assumption separate from conversion
Enter 10,000 visits and conversion rates of 1%, 2% and 3%. These generate 100, 200 and 300 expected orders. Use average order value PKR 1,500, non advertising variable cost PKR 900 per order and an illustrative selling fee of 3%.
The selling fee is PKR 45 per order, leaving PKR 555 contribution before the period’s advertising and fixed expenses. Enter advertising budget PKR 100,000 and fixed expenses PKR 20,000.
Compare the money outcomes, not just order counts
- Low scenario: PKR 150,000 revenue and negative PKR 64,500 profit.
- Base scenario: PKR 300,000 revenue and negative PKR 9,000 profit.
- High scenario: PKR 450,000 revenue and PKR 46,500 profit.
The base case makes twice as many orders as the low case but still does not recover the entered advertising and fixed costs. A large revenue figure can therefore remain below the model’s cost threshold.
The model does not predict which scenario will occur
You supply the visit count and all three conversion rates. The calculator checks their ordered structure; it does not estimate traffic quality, creative performance or the chance of each scenario. Use relevant historical records when setting assumptions, and state where those records differ from the planned campaign.
Keep average order value and cost scope aligned. If the variable cost already includes advertising, entering the full advertising budget separately counts that spend twice. Returns and failed COD deliveries also require deliberate treatment rather than assuming all forecast orders earn their full contribution.
Fractional orders are expectations rather than parcels
Some input combinations produce fractional expected orders. That is valid for a mathematical scenario, but actual fulfilment happens in whole orders. Do not mistake the decimal result for a dispatch instruction.
Target Profit Sales Calculator can turn a chosen profit goal into a whole unit requirement under a different cost model. ROAS & Ad Contribution Calculator reviews an entered completed campaign’s revenue and spend. Use this forecast to expose the range of possible money outcomes, then revise the assumptions as actual campaign data arrives.